Italy and France meet on Sunday in Milan's San Siro for the final match of their UEFA Nations League group. Both sides have already secured their places in the quarter-finals, but Italy needs to avoid losing by two goals to stay top of the group. With a long-standing rivalry and recent strong form, this clash promises to be an intense encounter.
Italy’s Recent Form
Italy has enjoyed a strong Nations League campaign, leading Group 2 with a near-perfect record. Recent performances have included two victories over Israel, a draw against Belgium, and a narrow 1-0 win against Belgium midweek thanks to an early Sandro Tonali goal.
Since their quarter-final exit in Euro 2024, coach Luciano Spalletti has revitalised the squad with fresh tactics, helping Italy remain undefeated in the Nations League.
Injury and Team News - Italy
Italy's squad will be missing several key players due to injuries. Arsenal defender Riccardo Calafiori and Torino midfielder Samuele Ricci are out, along with long-term absentees Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini.
Manuel Locatelli was called in to fill the midfield gap and will likely compete with Nicolo Rovella. Moise Kean, fresh from a Serie A hat-trick, may start up front in place of Mateo Retegui.
France’s Recent Form
France started strong in their Nations League campaign but were held to a 0-0 draw against Israel on Thursday.
They now face pressure to beat Italy by two goals if they are to finish top of the group. Coach Didier Deschamps has faced criticism following the team's draw against Israel, and injuries and squad rotation have impacted recent performances.
Injury and Team News - France
France will be without several top players, including Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappe and Aurelien Tchouameni.
The defence remains solid with AC Milan's Theo Hernandez and Mike Maignan set to play in familiar surroundings, while Marcus Thuram and Randal Kolo Muani are expected to lead the attack.
Kingsley Coman has replaced Ousmane Dembele due to injury and may start on the wing.
Italy Player To Watch
Moise Kean has shown excellent form in Serie A, with a recent hat-trick underscoring his attacking abilities. As Italy's likely forward, Kean could be pivotal in breaking down France’s defence.
France Player To Watch
Theo Hernandez will be back on familiar turf at the San Siro. Known for his defensive prowess and strong runs forward, Hernandez’s performance will be key for France in maintaining stability against Italy’s attack.
Prediction
Given both teams' strong defensive displays and the stakes involved, this clash could end in a tight, low-scoring draw.
Our Prediction: Italy 1-1 France.
Betting Tips
Tip 1: Draw
Both teams are through, reducing the need for a risky attacking strategy. Italy’s solid defence could hold off France, making a draw likely.
Tip 2: Under 2.5 Goals
With both sides focusing on avoiding injuries, a cautious approach could result in a low-scoring match.
Tip 3: Italy First Goal
Italy has scored early in recent matches, making them a safe pick to net the first goal.
