Italy ITA Cambiaso (1'), Retegui (24')
2 - 2
-
Full Time
Belgium BEL De Cuyper (42'), Trossard (61')

Match preview

Italy vs Belgium Prediction: UEFA Nations League

Here is our preview and prediction for the upcoming UEFA Nations League match between Italy and Belgium taking place this week.

 
9:20am on Tuesday 8th October 2024
By
Jake Skudder

Italy and Belgium meet in what promises to be an exciting UEFA Nations League clash at Stadio Olimpico. Italy, buoyed by their strong start to the campaign, aim to continue their good form against a Belgian side struggling to reclaim their dominance. This fixture is key for both teams as they seek crucial points in Group A2.

Italy Recent Form

Italy come into this match in high spirits, having secured two wins from their opening Nations League fixtures.

A 3-1 victory over France in Paris followed by a 2-1 triumph against Israel shows their attacking ability and resilience at the back. Despite an underwhelming EURO 2024 campaign, Luciano Spalletti’s side look revitalised and determined to make an impact in this competition.

Injury and Team News

Italy have added fresh faces to their squad, with six players earning their first international call-ups.

Notable names include Matteo Gabbia and Daniel Maldini. Mateo Retegui, currently Serie A’s joint-top scorer, will be Italy’s focal point in attack. Spalletti’s squad is almost fully fit, with no significant absentees reported.

Last Italy Lineup

Here is how Italy lined up for their last match:

Italy (3-5-1-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma; Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori; Federico Dimarco, Samuele Ricci, Sandro Tonali, Davide Frattesi, Raoul Bellanova; Lorenzo Pellegrini; Mateo Retegui.

Belgium Recent Form

Belgium’s form has been less consistent, as they registered a win against Israel before succumbing to a 2-0 defeat at the hands of France.

Domenico Tedesco’s side have struggled against top-ranked teams, and their recent performances have underlined the difficulties of transitioning after the golden generation's peak. Despite this, they remain a threat and will look to recover their form in Rome.

Injury and Team News

Belgium are without two key players, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, both sidelined with injuries.

This puts additional pressure on Leandro Trossard, Belgium’s joint-top scorer, and emerging talents like Jeremy Doku. Napoli winger Cyril Ngonge could also earn his first international cap.

Last Belgium Lineup

Here is how Belgium lined up for their last match:

Belgium (4-2-3-1): Matz Sels; Timothy Castagne, Wout Faes, Arthur Theate, Zeno Debast; Youri Tielemans, Amadou Onana; Jeremy Doku, Leandro Trossard, Dodi Lukebakio; Lois Openda.

Italy Player To Watch

Mateo Retegui has been in sensational form this season, leading Serie A’s scoring charts with seven goals. His clinical finishing will be crucial for Italy as they look to break down Belgium’s defence.

25 yrs - ST (C) - Atalanta
77 
Defending
Creative
Passing
Attacking
Shooting
Decisive
Aerials
Physical
JavaScript chart by amChartsLDefendingCreativePassingAttackingShootingDecisiveAerialsPhysical10-10-5051015100%
85
Played matches
2
0
1
Shots P90
Shots On target P90
Successful passing %
0%
Final third passes P90

Belgium Player To Watch

Leandro Trossard is the key player for Belgium, particularly in the absence of De Bruyne and Lukaku. His creative play and goal-scoring ability make him Belgium’s best hope of getting on the scoresheet.

29 yrs - F (LC) - Arsenal
84 
Defending
Creative
Passing
Attacking
Shooting
Decisive
Aerials
Physical
JavaScript chart by amChartsLDefendingCreativePassingAttackingShootingDecisiveAerialsPhysical10-10-5051015100%
309
Played matches
6
2
0
Shots P90
2.66
Shots On target P90
1.07
Successful passing %
76%
Final third passes P90
12.25

Prediction

Given Italy’s impressive start to the Nations League and their strong recent record against Belgium, a narrow win for Gli Azzurri seems likely.

Belgium’s injury concerns and inconsistent form make it difficult to see them causing an upset in Rome.

Our Prediction: Italy 2-1 Belgium

Betting Tips

Tip 1: Italy to Win

With Italy’s superior form and home advantage, they are the favourites to come out on top in this match.

Tip 2: Both Teams to Score

Italy have struggled to keep clean sheets, while Belgium still have attacking talent that could exploit any defensive lapses.

Tip 3: Mateo Retegui to Score Anytime

Retegui’s current form in Serie A suggests he is likely to find the back of the net in this match.

Match statistics

Italy
Statistics
Belgium
Games Played
20
20
 
Results
 
Wins
10
11
Draws
4
4
Losses
6
5
 
Goals Scoring
 
Goals Scored
33
31
Goals Per Game
1.65
1.55
More > 2.5 Goals
11
7
More > 3 Goals
6
4
Scored First in a Match
10
13
Scored Both Halves
6
7
Won More > 1 Goal
5
6
 
Other
 
Goals Conceded
25
13
Did Not Score
4
7
Both Teams Scored
12
5
Kept Clean Sheet
6
10
Won Without Conceding
4
8
Games Played
20
20
 
Possession
 
Touches
-
-
Possession
-
-
Passes
-
-
 
Attacking
 
Total Shots
13
14
Shots on Target
3.95
4.90
Goals out of Shots
0.12
0.10
Crosses
-
-
Offsides
2.31
2.79
Penalties
0.05
0.05
 
Defensive
 
Clean Sheets
0.30
0.50
Tackles Won
-
-
Clearances
-
-
Interceptions
-
-
Own Goals
0.05
0.15
Aerials Won
-
-
Total Shots Conceded
11
12
Shots on Target Conceded
4.37
3.67
Goals out of Shots Conceded
0.13
0.05
 
Discipline
 
Fouls
11
9.75
Yellow Cards
1.85
1.60
Red Cards
0.00
0.00

In suspension danger

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