xG Check

xG Check, 28 Jan: Strasbourg xG dubious, Atalanta are the attack masters

Some strange scoring as Monaco lose, while Marseille and Angers put up an anti-classic

 
11:00am on Tuesday 28th January 2020
By
Paul Macdonald
FL1 Jan 25, 2020 L
  • Monaco xG: 1.2
  • Strasbourg xG: 0.7
  • xG numbers don't match reality of contest
5.4

This is the type of match that makes Expected Goals hater scoff at the apparent results. Monaco were far from unlucky in this match and they deserved to lose. Kamil Glik (0.61 xG) and his shot off the post was nowhere near as clear a chance as the xG would have you believe, similarly to Benjamin Henrich's (0.3 xG) shot early on. These two grossly overrated incidents skew the score.

In reality, Strasbourg's opening goal of 0.12 xG from Ludovic Ajorque was tapped home from six yards out - it's difficult to work out the current models have graded a relatively straightforward chance so lowly. xG is still developing as a concept and certainly isn't right every time at the moment - this game is a very good example of that.

FL1 Jan 25, 2020 D
  • Marseille xG: 0.35
  • Angers xG: 0.15
  • A shocker of a contest
6.3

There may not be many worse matches in any of the top five leagues this season than this horror show. FC (via French Football Expert Robin Bairner) had already highlighted that with OM's suspensions they would struggle in attack this weekend , but boy, this was a struggle.

Just two shots on target in the entire contest and virtually none of them were from any kind of optimum position. Anger hit a single shot from inside the area. These teams could have played for quite some time on this form and would never have found the net.

ISA Jan 25, 2020 W
  • Torino xG: 0.5
  • Atalanta xG: 5.4
  • One of the attacking displays of the season
10.0

Usually when teams hand out a paddling, like Atalanta administered to Torino on Saturday, their Expected Goals is, generally, a little way off from their overall number. Not only is Atalanta's 5.4 xG insanely high, but one of the goals they did score, from Josip Ilicic, was driven home from the halfway line and carried an xG of 0.01 xG!

Atalanta truly are an attacking behemoth, one that showed absolutely no mercy on poor Torino. This scoreline could have been far worse, given the chances missed and the chances taken.

What is xG check?

Each week FC will aggregate the Expected Goals (xG) ratings from three respected sources and provide an average for both the home and away team. From there we will assess which matches have ended in a different manner than the xG would suggest.

EXPECTED GOALS (xG) assesses the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance. From there that shot is assigned an xG score and the cumulative total of these scores provides a team's xG for a match. Stats Definition

But sometimes, xG doesn't tell the whole picture, so we also analyse the highlights of these games to look at the chances created by teams in a little more detail.

Latest news

La Liga

Ansu Fati: Player Rating and Performance in Villarreal victory

The 17-year-old was once again in sublime form as Barcelona easily swept past the Yellow Submarines

  • 1 hour
Transfers

Manchester City on brink of £65m deal for Ruben Dias

In the wake of their shocking 5-2 loss at the hands of Leicester, Pep Guardiola is all set to make another defensive reinforcement

  • 2 hours
Player Rating

Luis Suarez: Player Rating and Performance on his Atletico debut

The Uruguayan started on the bench but got in on the act in a real statement of intent from his new side

  • 6 hours
Premier League

Jose Mourinho storms down tunnel after 'joke' handball decision

A late, totally unjustifiable penalty kick given to Newcastle sent the Portuguese into a rage and he headed to the dressing room

  • 7 hours
Transfers

Real Madrid won't make any signings, Zidane confirms

Los Blancos boss has said that there will be no new arrivals in one of the quietest transfer windows in years for the Spanish giants

  • 8 hours
VAR

Spanish federation want Manuel Pellegrini banned for criticising VAR

The Chilean was heavily critical of the performance of the technology, and the officials, in Betis' defeat to Real Madrid

  • 8 hours

Most read

Other interesting players

  1. image description Josip Iličić F, AM (C)
    Atalanta 99
  2. image description Cristiano Ronaldo F (C), W (L)
    Juventus 95
  3. image description Kylian Mbappé F (C), W (L)
    PSG 94
  4. image description PE Aubameyang F (C), AM (L)
    Arsenal 91
  5. image description Gerard Moreno F (C), AM (R)
    Villarreal 90
  6. image description Timo Werner F (C), AM (L)
    Chelsea 86
  7. Hoffenheim 86
  8. image description Ante Rebić F (C), AM (L)
    Milan 85
  9. image description Gabriel Jesus F (C), AM (R)
    Man City 85