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Croatia vs Scotland Prediction: UEFA Nations League

Here is our prediction and preview for the upcoming UEFA Nations League match between Croatia and Scotland this week.

 
10:00am on Thursday 10th October 2024
By
Jake Skudder

Croatia and Scotland face off in a crucial UEFA Nations League fixture this week, with Croatia aiming to build momentum after a hard-fought win over Poland, and Scotland desperate to break their poor run of form, this clash in Zagreb promises to be an exciting encounter.

Both teams have experienced mixed fortunes in recent months, making this a pivotal match for their Nations League campaigns.

Croatia Recent Form

Croatia has had a turbulent run in the Nations League, beginning with a 2-1 loss to Portugal. However, they bounced back in their last outing with a narrow 1-0 victory over Poland, which ended a frustrating four-match winless streak.

The Croatian squad will be looking to build on this and capitalise on Scotland's recent struggles.

Injury and Team News

There were concerns over Josip Sutalo, but the Croatian defender has trained with the squad and should be available for selection. Meanwhile, Mateo Kovačić's participation remains uncertain due to personal reasons.

Veteran midfielder Luka Modrić will continue to anchor the midfield as he earns his 181st cap, while Andrej Kramarić is expected to lead the attack after recovering from a knock.

Scotland Recent Form

Scotland is in a tough spot, having failed to win any of their last two Nations League matches, including a 3-2 defeat to Poland. Their EURO 2024 campaign also started on a sour note with a heavy 5-1 loss to Germany.

Steve Clarke's side has struggled to find consistency, managing just one win in their last 14 games across all competitions.

Injury and Team News

Scotland's preparations have been hampered by key injuries. Defenders Greg Taylor and Nathan Patterson, along with goalkeeper Angus Gunn, are out. John McGinn and Kieran Tierney are also unavailable.

The inclusion of Andy Irving marks a notable addition to the squad. Midfielder Scott McTominay, who has scored in consecutive Nations League matches, will be a key figure.

Croatia Player to Watch

Luka Modrić remains the heartbeat of the Croatian team, providing experience and leadership. His vision and passing ability will be crucial in breaking down the Scottish defence.

39 yrs - M, DM (C) - Real Madrid
85
Defending
Creative
Passing
Attacking
Shooting
Decisive
Aerials
Physical
JavaScript chart by amChartsLDefendingCreativePassingAttackingShootingDecisiveAerialsPhysical10-10-5051015100%
405
Played matches
8
0
1
Shots P90
1.27
Shots On target P90
0.36
Successful passing %
91%
Final third passes P90
32.00

Scotland Player to Watch

Scott McTominay will be Scotland’s key player in this fixture. With his recent goalscoring form in the Nations League, he will be relied upon to help drive his team forward.

27 yrs - DM, AM (C) - Napoli
75 
Defending
Creative
Passing
Attacking
Shooting
Decisive
Aerials
Physical
JavaScript chart by amChartsLDefendingCreativePassingAttackingShootingDecisiveAerialsPhysical10-10-5051015100%
286
Played matches
4
1
1
Shots P90
1.89
Shots On target P90
0.63
Successful passing %
83%
Final third passes P90
8.18

Prediction

Croatia are favourites to claim victory in this match, especially with home advantage and Scotland’s ongoing struggles. A solid Croatian defence and their midfield control should see them dominate the game, while Scotland’s depleted squad may struggle to find attacking rhythm.

Our Prediction: Croatia win, under 4.5 goals

Betting Tips

Tip 1

Croatia to win – Croatia has the edge in form and quality, and a home win is expected.

Tip 2

Under 4.5 goals – Given Croatia’s solid defensive structure and Scotland’s recent lack of firepower, this game is likely to stay under 4.5 goals.

Tip 3

Luka Modrić to assist – The Croatian captain’s creativity makes him a strong candidate to provide an assist in this fixture.

Match statistics

Croatia
Statistics
Scotland
Games Played
20
20
 
Results
 
Wins
10
9
Draws
4
4
Losses
6
7
 
Goals Scoring
 
Goals Scored
26
34
Goals Per Game
1.30
1.70
More > 2.5 Goals
8
13
More > 3 Goals
3
6
Scored First in a Match
9
8
Scored Both Halves
1
5
Won More > 1 Goal
4
7
 
Other
 
Goals Conceded
20
28
Did Not Score
5
4
Both Teams Scored
9
10
Kept Clean Sheet
8
7
Won Without Conceding
6
6
Games Played
20
20
 
Possession
 
Touches
-
-
Possession
-
-
Passes
-
-
 
Attacking
 
Total Shots
16
11
Shots on Target
5.75
3.67
Goals out of Shots
0.09
0.19
Crosses
-
-
Offsides
2.43
1.73
Penalties
0.10
0.10
 
Defensive
 
Clean Sheets
0.40
0.35
Tackles Won
-
-
Clearances
-
-
Interceptions
-
-
Own Goals
0.00
0.00
Aerials Won
-
-
Total Shots Conceded
12
11
Shots on Target Conceded
4.32
4.72
Goals out of Shots Conceded
0.09
0.12
 
Discipline
 
Fouls
11
12
Yellow Cards
1.75
1.95
Red Cards
0.00
0.05