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Match preview

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction: Real look to start closing the gap on Barca

Here is our prediction and preview for the upcoming La Liga Primera match between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid.

 
9:47am on Friday 27th September 2024
By
Jake Skudder

Real Madrid head into this match with the aim of narrowing the gap between themselves and Barcelona in the La Liga standings. Atletico, however, have proven to be tough rivals, particularly in home fixtures at the Metropolitano Stadium.

With Real Madrid missing key players such as Kylian Mbappe, the match promises to be a closely contested derby.

Atletico Madrid Recent Form

Atletico Madrid have enjoyed a solid start to the season, building on their strong home form. They recently secured a dramatic equaliser against Celta Vigo, showing their ability to fight until the final whistle.

Their aggressive style under Diego Simeone makes them a formidable opponent, even for a side as massive as Real, and especially at the Metropolitano.

Injury and team news

Atletico Madrid are mostly injury-free going into this clash, with Pablo Barrios being their only confirmed absentee.

On the other hand, Real Madrid are missing several key players. Kylian Mbappe is out with a thigh injury, while Eduardo Camavinga, Brahim Diaz, Dani Ceballos, and David Alaba are also sidelined, limiting Ancelotti’s options.

Last Atletico Madrid Lineup

Here is how Atletico Madrid lined up for their last match:

Real Madrid Recent Form

Real Madrid have been strong in their La Liga campaign, sitting second in the table. However, with Barcelona pulling ahead, Real are under pressure to continue their unbeaten run.

Their last outing against Alaves saw them emerge victorious, but they suffered a blow with Mbappe’s injury.

Injury and team news

Real Madrid are dealing with several injuries, most notably to Kylian Mbappe. Other missing players include Camavinga, Ceballos, and Alaba. Jude Bellingham could be pushed into a more advanced role, while Endrick or Luka Modric might feature prominently.

Last Real Madrid Lineup

Here is how Real Madrid lined up for their last match:

Atletico Madrid Player To Watch

Antoine Griezmann will be Atletico’s key player, with his creative abilities and knack for scoring crucial goals making him a central figure in Simeone’s attack.

33 yrs - F, AM (C) - Atletico Madrid
89 
Defending
Creative
Passing
Attacking
Shooting
Decisive
Aerials
Physical
JavaScript chart by amChartsLDefendingCreativePassingAttackingShootingDecisiveAerialsPhysical10-10-5051015100%
497
Played matches
7
2
3
Shots P90
1.08
Shots On target P90
0.54
Successful passing %
77%
Final third passes P90
19.12

Real Madrid Player To Watch

Jude Bellingham is expected to be Real Madrid’s standout performer. If pushed into a more attacking role due to Mbappe’s absence, his dynamism and playmaking could be crucial.

21 yrs - AM (CL) - Real Madrid
91
Defending
Creative
Passing
Attacking
Shooting
Decisive
Aerials
Physical
JavaScript chart by amChartsLDefendingCreativePassingAttackingShootingDecisiveAerialsPhysical10-10-5051015100%
262
Played matches
3
0
1
Shots P90
1.37
Shots On target P90
0.69
Successful passing %
87%
Final third passes P90
25.76

Prediction

This derby is shaping up to be a closely fought battle. Despite Real Madrid’s recent strong form, the absence of Mbappe may hinder their ability to secure all three points.

Atletico, backed by a passionate home crowd, are likely to make life difficult for Real, but a draw seems the most likely outcome.

Our Predicted result: 2-2 draw

Betting Tips

Tip 1

Both teams to score – Atletico and Real Madrid are both likely to find the net, given their attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities so far this season.

Tip 2

Over 2.5 goals – Expect a high-scoring game with the attacking quality on display.

Tip 3

Draw – With key injuries for Real Madrid and Atletico’s home advantage, a draw is a realistic outcome.

Recent Ratings

Next Game

  Average Match Rating  
7.5
  Home  
7.6
6.6
  Away  
7.1
6.9
  Total  
7.4

Match statistics

Atletico Madrid
Statistics
Real Madrid
Games Played
20
20
 
Results
 
Wins
13
15
Draws
3
5
Losses
4
0
 
Goals Scoring
 
Goals Scored
33
48
Goals Per Game
1.65
2.40
More > 2.5 Goals
12
11
More > 3 Goals
5
8
Scored First in a Match
11
16
Scored Both Halves
8
5
Won More > 1 Goal
6
10
 
Other
 
Goals Conceded
21
16
Did Not Score
3
1
Both Teams Scored
9
10
Kept Clean Sheet
9
10
Won Without Conceding
8
9
Games Played
20
20
 
Possession
 
Touches
652
777
Possession
48
57
Passes
482
597
 
Attacking
 
Total Shots
13
16
Shots on Target
4.45
6.80
Goals out of Shots
0.15
0.16
Crosses
16
15
Offsides
3.27
1.93
Penalties
0.05
0.35
 
Defensive
 
Clean Sheets
0.45
0.50
Tackles Won
9.38
9.63
Clearances
19
14
Interceptions
6.45
7.79
Own Goals
0.05
0.05
Aerials Won
11
9.58
Total Shots Conceded
10
13
Shots on Target Conceded
3.45
4.16
Goals out of Shots Conceded
0.09
0.06
 
Discipline
 
Fouls
12
9.55
Yellow Cards
2.05
1.95
Red Cards
0.05
0.05

Injuries

  1. Calf Injury image description
  2. Thigh Injury image description
  3. Ankle Injury image description
  4. Groin Injury image description
  5. Hamstring image description
  6. Muscle Strain image description
  7. ACL Knee Injury image description