xG Check

xG Check, 3 Dec: Juventus and Bayern do everything... but win

While Manchester City Wolfsburg are unfortunate

2:00pm on Tuesday 3rd December 2019
Paul Macdonald

What is xG check?

Each week FC will aggregate the Expected Goals (xG) ratings from three respected sources and provide an average for both the home and away team. From there we will assess which matches have ended in a different manner than the xG would suggest.

EXPECTED GOALS (xG) assesses the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance. From there that shot is assigned an xG score and the cumulative total of these scores provides a team's xG for a match. Stats Definition

But sometimes, xG doesn't tell the whole picture, so we also analyse the highlights of these games to look at the chances created by teams in a little more detail.

ISA Dec 1, 2019 D
  • Juve xG: 4.35
  • Sassuolo xG: 0.70
  • 29 shots total for Juve

Gianluigi Buffon's absolute howler - one of the worst mistakes of his career - allowed a Francesco Caputo shot of just 0.05 xG slither through his hands, while Juve battered down the Sassuolo door, only for Gonzalo Higuain (0.55 xG) to miss the easiest from just eight yards out. 29 shots, 11 on target, and an xG more than double what they achieved. Juve have not been playing well at times this season but this was one that definitely got away.

BUN Nov 30, 2019 L
  • Bayern xG: 2.25
  • Leverkusen xG: 1.45
  • Bayern guilty of poor decision making in good positions

Likewise for Bayern. Leon Bailey's two excellent breakaway goals were all the winger's own work and the combined xG of both goals was just 0.41. At the other end, Bayern's xG of 2.45 actually underrates the quality of the chances they missed, particularly Serge Gnabry, who when clean through on goal played the wrong pass and didn't even get a shot away to register xG, a chance which would have been given a big score.

EPL Nov 30, 2019 D
  • Man City xG: 2.5
  • Newcastle xG: 0.3
  • City undone by two excellent goals

City are unlucky. Despite what people think about a downturn, they are being undone by some brilliant goals, as witnessed by Jetro Willems (0.07 xG) and Jonjo Shelvey (0.03 xG). Newcastle created nothing else of note and City were more than good for their two goals, despite De Bruyne's being a brilliant effort (0.04 xG). Gabriel Jesus' miss (0.50 xG) when clean through was a game-changing moment.

BUN Dec 1, 2019 L
  • Wolfsburg xG: 2.65
  • Bremen xG: 1.35
  • Wolfsburg pass up numerous openings

Wolfsburg's finishing wasn't great - some close efforts going astray early on - but it was more Bremen massively outperforming their score that made the difference. Bremen only had six efforts from inside the area, including their penalty, and scored three of them, with a combined total of 1.35 xG well below that total. Wolfsburg can feel aggrieved.

EPL Nov 30, 2019 L
  • Burnley xG: 1.85
  • Palace xG: 1.00
  • Two defensive errors from Burnley

Burnley have had an excellent run of form at home of late and were favourites to see of a Palace side hugely struggling to score. And while they lost, they can rue two clear defensive errors to contribute to Palace's win. Usually reliable Tom Heaton let a Wilfried Zaha shot slip through his hands, while Ben Mee's awful clearance allowed Jeff Schlupp to squeeze in front a tight angle. Burnley had more than enough chances of their own, too.

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