xG Check

xG Check, 25 Feb: Newcastle's awful attack exposed, plus a historic low xG in France

Whether Steve Bruce likes it or not, Newcastle's statistics are coming after them

 
11:00am on Tuesday 25th February 2020
By
Paul Macdonald
EPL Feb 22, 2020 L
  • Crystal Palace xG: 1.75
  • Newcastle xG: 0.15
  • Newcastle's lowest xG of season
4.7

Steve Bruce faced down journalists recently who suggested that his team had been fortunate and that the statistics intimated that his team should be lower down the table. He found it offensive. And then his team went out and recorded just 0.15 xG against Palace in one of the most insipid displays of the season.

Palace - a team who have also had trouble scoring goals - were excellent value for their win and Christian Benteke's (0.55 xG) baffling header that whizzed past the post was their most glaring miss.

Newcastle had eight efforts, two inside the area, and the two that found the target rolled harmlessly into the arms of the goalkeeper. Newcastle have a HUGE month of fixtures ahead - if this bad run continues relegation is still a possibility.

FL1 Feb 22, 2020 D
  • Strasbourg xG: 0.6
  • Amiens xG: 0.06
  • One of lowest xG of season so far
5.4

Congratulations to Amiens, who recorded one of the lowest xGs seen anywhere in Europe away to Strasbourg at the weekend.

The hosts were hardly stellar offensively themselves, offering just 0.6 in a truly dreadful contest, but Amiens mustered just three shots with an average distance of 25 yards from goal and each carrying just 0.02 xG. A truly horrendous spectacle, this one.

LAL Feb 21, 2020 D
  • Betis xG: 2.9
  • Mallorca xG: 0.95
  • Good finishing from Mallorca
6.9

By contrast another hugely exciting match featuring Betis ended 3-3 at the Benito Villamarin, and the hosts were very unfortunate not to earn all three points.

Betis were awarded two clear penalties which combined offered 1.5 xG, while were value for at least another one. Mallorca on the other hand relied on a quite stunning finish from Cucho Hernandez (0.07 xG) and a fortunate effort from Takefusa Kubo (0.09 xG) that squirmed under the body of the goalkeeper meant that a match that really should have been a home win ended in an exciting score draw.

What is xG check?

Each week FC will aggregate the Expected Goals (xG) ratings from three respected sources and provide an average for both the home and away team. From there we will assess which matches have ended in a different manner than the xG would suggest.

EXPECTED GOALS (xG) assesses the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance. From there that shot is assigned an xG score and the cumulative total of these scores provides a team's xG for a match. Stats Definition

But sometimes, xG doesn't tell the whole picture, so we also analyse the highlights of these games to look at the chances created by teams in a little more detail.

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