As football fans up and down the country know, the 'Beautiful Game' is constantly changing and evolving, whether that be styles of play and tactics, or IFAB's yearly tweaks that are designed to make the game fairer, simpler and more entertaining - yet they always infuriate fans further, confuse referees and players, and then we have endless tweaks to the tweaks because they just cannot admit they might be wrong.
Something else that has changed as the past few decades have cycled through has been the supposed belief in 'home advantage'. The theory of the 12th man has long permeated the game, and has spanned into whether you attack the home end or the away end in the second half to give you the best advantage of taking victory, with the belief that your fans can help 'suck' the ball into the back of the net. This perceived home advantage can prove crucial for those fans who like a flutter and allow home vs away data integrated in football betting platforms to influence their ultimate decisions.
Whilst the roar of the crowd can have motivational advantages to a side, that applies home and away and the simple truth is the more you play on a surface, the more consistent you will be on it. How a ball runs, the length and width of the grass, how the wind effects play, even down to the knowledge of knowing where not to stand so you do not get blinded by the sun are all factors.
That is not to diminish the effect loyal fans have on their side though and as we all saw through the Covid pandemic, games very quickly became lacklustre as they morphed into glorified training sessions played behind closed doors, but creating an atmosphere that improves the performances of both sides does not equate to a home advantage.
Previous studies have been conducted into the effects of the home crowd, and the ever changing nature of results down the years proved that home advantage is largely a myth and the effect it did have back in the 1800's has been reducing with every passing season.
At its peak back in the 1895/96 campaign, home sides won 64.6% of the games when 480 matches were played across two professional tiers, but fast forward to the modern game and the 2015/16 season, and it falls to a then all time low of just 41% (2036 matches played across four professional tiers). That same season the away percentage win rate spiked to an all time high of 31.5%.
It effectively means that between the years of 1895 and 2016, home advantage fell by more than 36% on a proportional basis. Figures have again changed and fluctuated in the years since that study was commissioned, and naturally there are also differing home advantage results depending on what tier of football you look at. So whilst home familiarity helps, it is far from the guaranteed advantage that it is perceived to be.
But it can still be a strength when used correctly, and purely from a psychological perspective, if a player is more comfortable on home soil that will naturally translate to their game mindset, their own confidence levels, their approach and their calmness and focus.
Much in the way psychological barriers at grounds you do not like can come into play, such as a previous heavy defeat or a historical poor record that can inadvertently pull individual performance levels down.
With the introduction of further technology such as the Video Assistant Referee system, and future changes planned for automated offsides, it will be interesting to see what effects those have on perceived home field advantage vs home familiarity results in the next few years.
