xG Check

xG Check, Nov 5: Real Madrid wasteful and Icardi ruins PSG's night

FC analyses Expected Goals figures to asses which teams were unfortunate - and fortunate - in their final results

1:00pm on Tuesday 5th November 2019
By
Team FC

What is xG check?

Each week FC will aggregate the Expected Goals (xG) ratings from three respected sources and provide an average for both the home and away team. From there we will assess which teams have been:

- LUCKY (winning or draw a match despite having inferior xG), or

- UNLUCKY (drawing or losing a match despite having a superior xG)

EXPECTED GOALS (xG) assesses the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance. From there that shot is assigned an xG score and the cumulative total of these scores provides a team's xG for a match. Stats Definition

But sometimes, xG doesn't tell the whole picture, so we also analyse the highlights of these games to look at the chances created by teams in a little more detail.

LUCKY

EPL Nov 3, 2019 D
  • Spurs record a paltry 0.23 xG at Goodison
  • They managed just four shots, two on target
  • Everton recorded xG of 1.15
6.0

Tottenham have been a shadow of themselves all season and in the absence of Harry Kane were totally toothless against a vulnerable Everton side. Dele Alli's excellent individual goal came from an Alex Iwobi error, and Spurs created precious little in the contest beyond that. Andre Gomes' horror injury marred what was already a terrible contest, and Everton will feel they should have taken the points.

FL1 Nov 3, 2019 W
  • Nice collect first win in seven games
  • Harsh Reims red card early tipped contest
  • Despite that Reims xG of 0.75 higher than Nice
7.7

Nice have been seriously struggling under Patrick Vieira and while this 2-0 win over Reims was much-needed, it was more than a little fortunate. A very harsh early red card for Moussa Doumbia, given a second yellow for sarcastically applauding the referee, tipped the balance in Nice's favour yet they could only record an xG of 0.68 against 10 men, in keeping with their poor displays in front of goal. Indeed Reims were the better team in the second half with Remi Oudlin (0.25 xG) in particular squandering a good opening.

UNLUCKY

LAL Nov 2, 2019 D
  • xG 3.08 v 0.44
  • 22 Shots, 7 On Target
  • 47 Touches in Box
7.2

Sergio Ramos alone racked up well over 1.2 xG against Betis, slamming against the keeper from a good position in the first half, while in the second he collected a massive 0.82 xG for a miss in the final minute. But Ramos was at close range and was never truly in control of the ball, though he did touch it. Even if this xG score is probably too high, big misses from Ferland Mendy (0.4 xG) and Vinicius (0.33 xG) meant that Madrid should definitely have collected the points.

FL1 Nov 1, 2019 L
  • Only 4 of PSG's 20 shots were on target
  • Icardi the guilty party, missing 2 xG of chances
  • PSG record 3.4 xG but score only once
6.4

Dijon pulled off one of the shocks of the season in defeating PSG 2-1, but the Parisiens should have taken at least a point from a game in which forward Mauro Icardi missed four guilt-edged chances. The Argentine struck the crossbar with a header (0.33 xG) when he really should have scored, but his profligacy continued, scooping over the bar from just six yards (0.55 xG), sending a shot past the near post when in a good position (0.4 xG) before blazing over at the death from the edge of the area (0.15 xG). In total he squandered in the region of 2 xG of PSG's 3.4 xG total. There's only one place to look to understand this result.

LAL Nov 2, 2019 D
  • Diego Costa misses second half penalty
  • Alvaro Morata involved in controversial late incident
  • Atleti record 2.65 xG v Sevilla's 1.01
6.3

Atleti may have struggled for goals this season but against Sevilla they were undone by two key moments. Diego Costa's weak penalty (0.75 xG) was saved before right at the death Alvaro Morata's slide (0.6 xG) was thwarted on the line, likely illegally, by Jules Kounde. The defender firstly seemed to block with his hands before holding the ball between his legs to deny the forward a chance. It really should have been a second penalty - Atleti can count themselves unfortunate.

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