Expected Goals

Which attackers have the highest Expected Goals in 2019/20?

We've looked at forwards shot accuracy and conversion rate, now we look at their xG numbers

 
3:00pm on Thursday 30th April 2020
By
Paul Macdonald

In previous versions of this analysis we've looked at forward players in Europe's top five leagues in 2019/20.

We've assessed which players have the most accurate shots, which players have the highest conversion rate, and also which players have the best Non-Pen Goals P90 rates. You can read about those below.

READ MORE:

Shoooott!: Which players in Europe hit the most accurate shots?

EXPECTED GOALS (xG) assesses the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance. From there that shot is assigned an xG score and the cumulative total of these scores provides a team's xG for a match. Stats Definition

Finally, we are going to look at the highest Expected Goals performers across Europe's top five leagues.

HIGHEST xG: TOP FIVE LEAGUES

Player Goals v xG

#Player NameTeamGxG
1Robert LEWANDOWSKIBayern2523.7
2Ciro IMMOBILELazio2720.2
3Timo WERNERRB Leipzig2118.5
4Cristiano RONALDOJuventus2117.3
5Edin DZEKORoma1217.1
6Kylian MBAPPEPSG1816.6
7Karim BENZEMAReal Madrid1416.0
8Victor OSIMHENLille1315.8
9Mo SALAHLiverpool1615.5
10Roberto FIRMINOLiverpool815.5

Robert Lewandowski remains one of the most reliable goalscorers in the world, though his goal total and xG total have come together over time, following his blistering start to the Bundesliga season.

Ciro Immobile may be overperforming but his underlying numbers are extremely solid, while Timo Werner and Cristiano Ronaldo are on similar trajectories.

Kylian Mbappe is lower down this list than his position in others - but we'll remedy that in a moment. Further down we have an interesting comparison between two Liverpool forwards; Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino have identical xG but the Egyptian has scored twice as many goals as his team-mate.

But in a similar way to goals v goals P90, we want to assess their xG P90 totals to ensure we get an accurate picture of a player's threat levels in any given match.

xG P90: TOP FIVE LEAGUES

Player Goals v xG

#Player NameTeamxG P90
1Robert LEWANDOWSKIBayern1.05
2NEYMAR JRPSG1.00
3Kylian MBAPPEPSG0.99
4Gabriel JESUSMan City0.98
5Sergio AgueroMan City0.96
6Ciro IMMOBILELazio0.83
7Mauro ICARDIPSG0.82
8Timo WERNERRB Leipzig0.81
9Cristiano RONALDOJuventus0.80
10Lionel MESSIBarcelona0.72

Lewandowski solidifies his greatness, emerging on top of this list of seriously good attackers, while after that we see a few interesting cases.

Neymar and Kylian Mbappe have played less in Ligue 1 this season than they would have liked due to various injury issues, but when they do make it onto the pitch their xG P90 numbers are enviable.

Underneath we have the rotation and Man City between Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero, and both players have curiously similar numbers; basically City's attacking prowess through the centre varies little whether it's Jesus or Aguero leading the line.

Further down we have a list of the usual suspects and at the very end, Lionel Messi, by far from his most productive season in front of goal due to injury issues, squeezes into the top 10 with 0.72 xG P90.

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