Expected Goals

McGoldrick, Piatek and the mid-season Expected Goals underperformers

Who hasn't been hitting the target as

2:00pm on Friday 17th January 2020
Martin Macdonald

Expected Goals are a useful metric over the longer term, because any good xG model will see its players regress back to the mean over time. It means that are certain points of a season we can assess a player's goal total, compare it to their xG total, and identify players who are either over or underachieving the model.

EXPECTED GOALS (xG) assesses the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance. From there that shot is assigned an xG score and the cumulative total of these scores provides a team's xG for a match. Stats Definition

Why using Expected Goals kills the concept of a 'clinical' strikerRead More

See the tables below and be sure to click the related article for more reading from James Tippett's box entitled the Expected Goals Philosophy.

This data gathered from the Understat model, which can be found here.

premier league
xg underachieversJan 15, 2020
 Name TeamPositionxgxg var
Chris WoodBurnleyS (C)811.2+3.2
Diogo JotaWolvesF (C), AM (L)36.3+3.3
David McGoldrickSheffield UtdST (C)07.2+7.2

Poor David McGoldrick. Sheffield United fans adore him for his all-round leading the line performances but it's ridiculous he hasn't be able to convert at least one chance this season. It will turn for him eventually if he keeps getting into the right areas. Elsewhere Wood and Jota's numbers should probably be a little better, so are worth keeping an eye on.

la liga
xg underachieversJan 15, 2020
 Name TeamPositionxgxg var
Luuk de JongSevilla FCS (C)27.9+5.9
RodrigoValenciaST (C)25+3

Luuk De Jong's troubles in front of goal have been much highlighted, and his club Sevilla would be much better off than their already good position if they could find a striker who could score regularly (Chicharito looks set to leave, while Munas Dabbur has already gone to Hoffenheim). De Jong's record, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a running joke.

xg underachieversJan 15, 2020
 Name TeamPositionxgxg var
João VictorWolfsburgAM (LC)14+3
Daichi KamadaFrankfurtF, AM (C)03.15+3.15
Guido BurgstallerSchalkeST (C)03.8+3.8

No huge errors in the Bundesliga, though Kamada and Burgstaller will both be disappointed that they haven't been able to get off the mark for the season.

serie a
xg underachieversJan 15, 2020
 Name TeamPositionxgxg var
Nicola SansoneBolognaAM (L), F (C)47.65+3.65
Krzysztof PiątekMilanS (C)47.5+3.5
Lorenzo InsigneNapoliF (C), W (L)36.35+3.35
Khouma BabacarLecceST (C)25.35+3.35
Federico ChiesaFiorentinaF (C), W (R)35.07+3.07

There are a few high-profile names here, including alleged Spurs target Piatek and Lorenzo Insigne. It should be noted that both are playing in teams massively underachieving at the moment, and though their numbers aren't McGoldrick territory in terms what he should have scored, they are still below what should be expected.

ligue 1
xg underachieversJan 15, 2020
 Name TeamPositionxgxg var
Jonathan BambaLilleAM, M (L)14.2+3.2

Jonathan Bamba can count himself unfortunate he doesn't have a few more on his tally for a talented Lille team.

Vardy, Messi and the mid-season Expected Goals overperformers

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