xG Check, Nov 12: WBA steal victory while Osasuna and Metz somehow claim draws
What is xG check?
Each week FC will aggregate the Expected Goals (xG) ratings from three respected sources and provide an average for both the home and away team. From there we will assess which matches have ended in a different manner than the xG would suggest.
EXPECTED GOALS (xG) assesses the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance. From there that shot is assigned an xG score and the cumulative total of these scores provides a team's xG for a match.Stats Definition
But sometimes, xG doesn't tell the whole picture, so we also analyse the highlights of these games to look at the chances created by teams in a little more detail.
Metz barely ventured into the Lille penalty area in 90 minutes, their only shot on target a header which was easily saved. Lille meanwhile had a higher volume of chances, rather than creating good ones, with Victor Osimhen's close-range effort which was saved (0.52 xG) the best according to models, but in reality the keeper reacted to his position quickly and the opportunity wasn't guilt-edged. Even still, they created more than enough to win the match.
West Brom went top of the Championship after a hard-fought win over Hull but they were far from the better team in the contest. Livermore's long-range winner had a low yield, while Hull missed at least two clear chances, Kamil Grosicki firing wide when clean through (0.42 xG), Jackson Irvine scuffed the best chance from close (0.59 xG) and defender Jordi De Wijs (0.32 xG) showed zero composure at the end when blazing his volley over under no pressure. WBA are a good side, but this was a bit of a steal.
Osasuna's only effort was a weak header in the second half as they recorded the lowest xG of the round in the top five leagues. Getafe will feel that an incident where Kenedy smashed an overhead kick into the ground (0.4 xG) which fell to Jorge Molina (0.35 xG) who somehow managed to strike the crossbar from barely three yards out. The ball was bouncing, but he had control and plenty of time. It's a worse miss than the angle of the opportunity suggests.
Mallorca were awarded a somewhat fortunate penalty (0.74 xG) in their win over Villarreal, while being awarded a second penalty that was somewhat clearer. But they barely got close to the Yellow Submarine goal apart from that, with Takefusa Kubo's goal at the beginning of the second half had just a 2% success rate. Villarreal, meanwhile, missed serious chances through Franck Zambo (0.52 xG) and Raul Albiol (0.60 xG) and probably deserved at least a point from the contest.